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Airman 1st Class James Meredith applies precision tape on an F-35A Lightning II aircraft at RAF Lakenheath, England, March 20, 2025. Photo: Senior Airman Seleena Muhammad-Ali / U.S. Air Force

According to Oliver Wyman’s April 2025 report, How Cutting-Edge Tech Pushes Up Military Aircraft MRO Spend, the global military aircraft MRO market is valued at approximately $97 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to nearly $111 billion by 2035.

This increase, (CAGR) of 1.4% underscores the escalating maintenance demands driven by the introduction of next-generation technologies across global defense fleets.

New Technology Increases Maintenance Costs

Advanced aircraft such as the F-35, B-21 Raider, and the upcoming F-47 will increase maintenance costs due to their advanced features, such as stealth technology, advanced propulsion systems, and complex software. These technologies require more maintenance hours and result in higher operating costs.

The F-35 currently accounts for 2.2% of the world's military aircraft. However, by 2035, its share is expected to rise to 4.7% of the world's aircraft fleet.

According to the report, complex aircraft currently account for about 11% of the world's military aircraft fleet, but this share is expected to rise to 17% by 2035.

In Europe and Asia, for example, defense forces are investing heavily in advanced aircraft such as the Airbus A400M and NH90 helicopters.

The Wyman report highlights that by 2035, complex aircraft will account for 26% of NATO's total maintenance and repair costs, up from 16% today.

Civil Aviation Maintenance Rebounds, Faces New Challenges

According to Oliver Wyman's April 2025 report, The MRO Demand Challenge, the global aviation, MRO market has fully recovered from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching over $114 billion in 2024, which is a 7.2% increase above the 2019 pre-COVID peak.

The report projects that the MRO industry will continue to grow at an annual rate of 2.7%, reaching $156 billion by 2035.

This growth is driven by several factors, including newer aircraft experiencing unforeseen durability and reliability issues, inflation in labor and material costs, and an MRO “super cycle” characterized by increased aircraft utilization and an aging fleet requiring higher maintenance to stay operational.

However, the industry faces challenges such as production delays and increased passenger demand, which are putting pressure on existing maintenance capacity. Material shortages have emerged as a top concern among MRO industry professionals, alongside cost management and labor shortages, which have been consistently cited as significant disruptors.

Strategic Planning Essential to Control Costs

The rising cost of maintenance is a critical issue for both military and commercial operators. Without strategic investments in capacity, workforce development, and digital tools for predictive maintenance, the aviation industry risks falling behind operational needs.

For advanced military aircraft in particular, maintenance is no longer just a support function—it is a strategic capability. Ensuring mission readiness in the next decade will require unprecedented coordination across OEMs, defense ministries, and MRO providers.

Vaula Aunola

Sources:
Oliver Wyman: Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2025–2035 and Aviation MRO In Demand Amid Supply And Labor Constraints